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Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos
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Right now, Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 56.5 (-120/-110), with an implied projection of 57.4 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 57.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 56.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Los Angeles's ranks #5 in that regard this season.His 59.6% snap rate this year puts him in the #90 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 53.7% this year puts him in the #84 percentile among running backs.This year, the Chargers have played in 9 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #4-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #5-fastest paced offense this season.The Chargers are a 8.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.The Broncos have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #27-most in the NFL this year at 8.9% of the time.
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CONS:
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Ekeler finds himself in the #78 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 56 yards.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 1-mph wind in this game.Los Angeles has been the #29-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 32.9% run rate in a neutral context.The Broncos defense has allowed 106 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #10-least in football.The safeties of Denver have been the #10-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Los Angeles has faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (19.4% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Ekeler for a -2.6% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Los Angeles Chargers are projected to run 62.6 plays in this matchup, the #20-most on the game slate.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #19-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 38.4% of their plays.The Denver Broncos have allowed 4.39 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #14-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Denver have been the #20-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of Denver have been the #15-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Denver have been the #13-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Ekeler to exceed his player prop total 51.0% of the time. He projects for 57.7 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$7.04 with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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