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Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs
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Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 52.7 yards.
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PROS:
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The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line has ranked #5 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 66.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #96 percentile among running backs.He has received 57.0% of Los Angeles's carries this year -- #15 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Chargers project to run 65.2 total plays in this contest, the #4-most of the week.In terms of efficiency, Kansas City's defense has allowed 4.64 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#25-least in football).Chiefs defensive ends have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Chiefs defensive tackles have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Chiefs linebackers have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Chiefs safeties have ranked #30 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 8.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #28 most in the league.
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CONS:
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Ekeler has been the #21-leading rusher this season, tallying 56 yards per game on the ground.Los Angeles has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.Los Angeles is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offense runs the ball 32.1% of the time in a neutral context (#29 in the NFL), and they project to run 32.1% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 33.3% of the time in this contest (#31 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked box 19.4% of the time this season -- #5-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Ekeler is projected for -2.7% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Kansas City Chiefs have ranked #13 against the run this year, holding opponents to 107 yards per game on the ground.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 56.5 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.5% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $0.31. It's return on investment would yeild 0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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