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Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Los Angeles Chargers vs New York Giants
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Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 58.4 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 56.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line has ranked #3 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 67.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #97 percentile among running backs.He has received 58.0% of Los Angeles's carries this year -- #15 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #3-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Chargers project to run 63.9 total plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.Los Angeles is a 9.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.The New York Giants have ranked #23 against the run this year, holding opponents to 124 yards per game on the ground.Giants defensive tackles have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The New York Giants have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 8.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #29 most in the league.
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CONS:
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Ekeler has been the #20-leading rusher this season, tallying 55 yards per game on the ground.Los Angeles has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 31.5% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL), and they project to run 31.5% of the time in this contest.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked box 19.4% of the time this season -- #5-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Ekeler is projected for 9.2% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.This offenses projects to runs 37.6% of the time in this contest (#21 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.In terms of efficiency, New York's defense has allowed 4.56 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#21-least in football).Giants defensive ends have ranked #13 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Giants linebackers have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Giants safeties have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 75.0 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 62.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $17.90. It's return on investment would yeild 15%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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