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Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Los Angeles Chargers vs New York Giants
 
 
 
Austin Ekeler Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 58.4 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 56.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -120.
PROS:
  • The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line has ranked #3 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has been on the field for 67.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #97 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 58.0% of Los Angeles's carries this year -- #15 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #3-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Chargers project to run 63.9 total plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.
  • Los Angeles is a 9.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • The New York Giants have ranked #23 against the run this year, holding opponents to 124 yards per game on the ground.
  • Giants defensive tackles have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The New York Giants have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 8.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #29 most in the league.

  • CONS:
  • Ekeler has been the #20-leading rusher this season, tallying 55 yards per game on the ground.
  • Los Angeles has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • This offense runs the ball 31.5% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL), and they project to run 31.5% of the time in this contest.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked box 19.4% of the time this season -- #5-most in football.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Ekeler is projected for 9.2% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • This offenses projects to runs 37.6% of the time in this contest (#21 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • In terms of efficiency, New York's defense has allowed 4.56 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#21-least in football).
  • Giants defensive ends have ranked #13 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Giants linebackers have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Giants safeties have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 75.0 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 62.7% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $17.90. It's return on investment would yeild 15%.
     
     
     
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