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Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
New York Giants vs Washington Football Team
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Right now, Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 57.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 56.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Washington's ranks #6 in that regard this season.His 56.9% snap rate this year puts him in the #85 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 59.2% this year puts him in the #89 percentile among running backs.The WFT enter as a 6.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.Washington has been the #10-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 41.0% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #5-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 48.8% of their plays.The Giants defense has allowed 126 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #23-least in football.Washington has faced the #32-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (5.3% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Giants have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #29-most in the NFL this year at 8.3% of the time.
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CONS:
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Gibson finds himself in the #81 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 59 yards.This year, the WFT have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Offenses generally run more in these types of games, which means Washington could be running a bit less going forward in better conditions.In a neutral context, Washington has run the #23-fastest paced offense this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Gibson for a 2.5% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Washington Football Team are projected to run 63.3 plays in this matchup, the #13-most on the game slate.The New York Giants have allowed 4.53 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #19-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of New York have been the #12-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of New York have been the #19-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of New York have been the #22-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of New York have been the #17-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Gibson to exceed his player prop total 67.7% of the time. He projects for 83.7 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $30.53. That makes its return on investment yield +27%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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