| |
Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Football Team
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (100/-130) with an implied projection of 51.9 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 58.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 54.5 @ -130.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
The Washington Football Team offensive line has ranked #6 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 58.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #84 percentile among running backs.He has received 60.0% of Washington's carries this year -- #14 percentile when it comes to running backs.The WFT project to run 65.4 total plays in this contest, the #4-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 40.9% of the time in a neutral context (#11 in the NFL), and they project to run 40.9% of the time in this contest.Cowboys defensive tackles have ranked #30 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Cowboys linebackers have ranked #30 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Washington Football Team have faced a stacked box 5.3% of the time this season -- #32-most in football.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Gibson has been the #12-leading rusher this season, tallying 62 yards per game on the ground.Washington has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Washington Football Team have had the #23-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Washington is a 10.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to runs 37.0% of the time in this contest (#25 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Cowboys defensive ends have ranked #7 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Gibson is projected for -6.8% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Dallas Cowboys have ranked #13 against the run this year, holding opponents to 108 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Dallas's defense has allowed 4.51 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#17-least in football).Cowboys safeties have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Dallas Cowboys have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #15 most in the league.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 55.4 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.7% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $1.46. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
