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Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Washington Football Team vs Seattle Seahawks
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Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 61.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 66.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Gibson has been the #16-leading rusher this season, tallying 60 yards per game on the ground.The Washington Football Team offensive line has ranked #4 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.He has been on the field for 52.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #78 percentile among running backs.He has received 56.4% of Washington's carries this year -- #18 percentile when it comes to running backs.The WFT project to run 63.8 total plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 40.1% of the time in a neutral context (#10 in the NFL), and they project to run 40.1% of the time in this contest.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Washington Football Team have faced a stacked box 7.2% of the time this season -- #31-most in football.
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CONS:
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Washington has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Washington Football Team have had the #23-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.In terms of efficiency, Seattle's defense has allowed 4.06 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#4-least in football).Seahawks defensive tackles have ranked #7 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Seahawks linebackers have ranked #1 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Seahawks safeties have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 19.6% of the time this season, ranking as the #5 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Gibson is projected for -0.4% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #51 percentile among running backs.This offenses projects to runs 40.4% of the time in this contest (#15 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.The Seattle Seahawks have ranked #21 against the run this year, holding opponents to 121 yards per game on the ground.Seahawks defensive ends have ranked #11 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 62.2 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 46.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$0.58 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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