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Antonio Brown

Antonio Brown Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Antonio Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 72.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 66.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 72.5 @ -115.

PROS:

Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Brown is projected for 3.2% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #83 percentile among wide receivers.

In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.44 yards per target this season, ranking in the #83 percentile.

Brown has been in the #74 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 70.2% completion rate.

The Panthers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 71.2% of their targets this season, (#2-most in the league).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

The Buccaneers project to run 65.3 plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.

This offense passes the ball 71.7% of the time in a neutral context (#1 in the NFL).

This offenses projects to pass 66.5% of the time in this contest (#1 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Brown's offensive line has been #10 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

The Buccaneers offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).

CONS:

Carolina's defense has allowed 135 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#28-most in football).

Tampa Bay is a 11.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run play-action on 20.4% of their passes this year, #29-most in the NFL.

NEUTRAL:

Opposing wideouts have put up the #11-most yards per target (8.61) against the Panthers this season.

Carolina Panthers cornerbacks rank as the #20 unit in pass coverage.

Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the #14 unit in pass coverage.

Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tampa Bay has faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.7%).

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ sees him putting up 81.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.0% of the time.

THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $5.42. It's return on investment would yeild 5%.

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