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Antoine Wesley Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - NFC Wild Card Game
Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals
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Right now, Antoine Wesley Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 24.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.As a unit, the Rams safeties rank #24 in pass coverage.The Arizona Cardinals are projected to run 65.6 plays in this matchup, the #1-most on the game slate.The Cardinals enter as a 3.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Arizona to drop back to pass on 59.9% of their plays in this game (#9-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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CONS:
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Wesley ranks in the #28 percentile and has put up 7.34 yards per target this season.The Los Angeles Rams have allowed 7.39 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #4-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Rams cornerbacks rank #3 in pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Wesley ranks in the #43 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 41.9% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Wesley ranks in the #39 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 41.9% of Arizona's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Wesley ranks in the #33 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 6.1% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Wesley for a -0.6% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Wesley's 63.5% completion rate marks him in the #45 percentile among receivers.The Rams's pass defense ranks #14-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 144 yards per game this season.The Los Angeles Rams rank #13-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.1%.In a neutral context, Arizona has run the #15-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.4% of the time (#15 in the NFL).Arizona's O-Line grades out as the #14-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Wesley open.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Wesley to exceed his player prop total 62.6% of the time. He projects for 34.2 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $21.42. That makes its return on investment yield +19%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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