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Antoine Wesley Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Arizona Cardinals vs Indianapolis Colts
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Antoine Wesley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 29.8 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Wesley is projected for 10.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #99 percentile among wide receivers.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.Indianapolis Colts safeties rank as the #27 unit in pass coverage.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Arizona Cardinals have run play-action on 37.3% of their passes this year, #1-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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His target share this season has been 4.7% -- #26 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.07 yards per target this season, ranking in the #23 percentile.Wesley has been in the #30 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 60.1% completion rate.Indianapolis's defense has allowed 139 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#26-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #29-most yards per target (7.37) against the Colts this season.The Colts have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 61.7% of their targets this season, (#26-most in the league).Indianapolis Colts cornerbacks rank as the #8 unit in pass coverage.Arizona is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Arizona has faced the #30-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.5%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Wesley has been on the field for 35.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #39 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 34.5% of Arizona's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #33 percentile among wide receivers.The Arizona Cardinals have had the #20-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Cardinals project to run 63.0 plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 61.3% of the time in a neutral context (#16 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 58.9% of the time in this contest (#21 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Wesley's offensive line has been #16 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 40.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.6% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $15.14. It's return on investment would yeild 14%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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