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Andy Dalton Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears
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Right now, Andy Dalton Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 217.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 218.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 217.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The Bears enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Chicago to drop back to pass on 63.8% of their plays in this game (#8-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Minnesota's #27-ranked pass defense has allowed 269 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, Minnesota's defense is #25-best. This is because they allowed 8.08 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #32-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Vikings, they've stacked the box on 16.7% of their plays this season, #10-most in football.
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CONS:
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This year, at #33-best in the league, Dalton has passed for163 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Dalton has been #36 in the NFL this season. He averages 6.08 yards per target.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.6% of the time (#25 in the NFL).Minnesota has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.0% of their targets, which ranks them #9-best in the NFL.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #6-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #3-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Minnesota's defensive tackles rank #8 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #27-best in the league, completing passes at a 61.4% clip.This year, the Bears have played in the #11-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Dalton's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.In a neutral context, Chicago has run the #21-fastest paced offense this season.The Chicago Bears are projected to run 61.8 plays in this matchup, the #22-most on the game slate.Chicago's O-Line grades out as the #21-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Chicago's offensive has kept pressure off Andy Dalton for 2.44 seconds on average this year (#16-most in the NFL).Chicago has run play-action on 26.9% of their passes this year, #13-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Bears have faced the #19-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.2%).When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Minnesota's defensive ends rank #20 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Minnesota's linebackers rank #20 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Dalton to exceed his player prop total 67.3% of the time. He projects for 265.7 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $29.65. That makes its return on investment yield +26%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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