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Andy Dalton Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Chicago Bears vs New York Giants
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Right now, Andy Dalton Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 207.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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New York has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.5% of their targets, which ranks them #26-best in the NFL.The New York Giants have had the #27-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New York's linebackers rank #31 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, at #34-best in the league, Dalton has passed for160 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Dalton has been #35 in the NFL this season. He averages 6.29 yards per target.The Bears enter as a 6.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 57.9% of the time (#27 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Chicago to drop back to pass on 55.6% of their plays in this game (#24-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Chicago's O-Line grades out as the #23-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.In terms of passing efficiency, New York's defense is #10-best. This is because they allowed 7.37 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The New York Giants have had the #6-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New York's defensive ends rank #10 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Giants, they've stacked the box on 8.3% of their plays this season, #29-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #27-best in the league, completing passes at a 63.6% clip.This year, the Bears have played in the #10-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Dalton's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.In a neutral context, Chicago has run the #21-fastest paced offense this season.The Chicago Bears are projected to run 62.7 plays in this matchup, the #17-most on the game slate.Chicago's offensive has kept pressure off Andy Dalton for 2.44 seconds on average this year (#16-most in the NFL).Chicago has run play-action on 26.9% of their passes this year, #13-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Bears have faced the #19-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.2%).New York's #18-ranked pass defense has allowed 253 passing yards per game this year.The New York Giants have had the #22-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, New York's defensive tackles rank #21 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Dalton to exceed his player prop total 51.0% of the time. He projects for 210.0 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.37 with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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