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Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers
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Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 67.5 (-110/-120), with an implied projection of 66.5 yards.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, St. Brown ranks in the #75 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 75.0% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, St. Brown ranks in the #76 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 82.6% of Detroit's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, St. Brown ranks in the #84 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 21.3% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects St. Brown for a 6.2% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.St. Brown's 78.3% completion rate marks him in the #94 percentile among receivers.Detroit's game this week will be played in a dome. That means two things: zero wind and a greater chance to catch passes.The Lions enter as a 4.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.
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CONS:
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The Packers's pass defense ranks #9-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 146 yards per game this season.The Green Bay Packers have allowed 7.47 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #6-highest among NFL opponents.The Green Bay Packers rank #2-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 59.2%.As a unit, the Packers safeties rank #10 in pass coverage.The Detroit Lions are projected to run 61.2 plays in this matchup, the #27-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 56.9% of the time (#29 in the NFL).Detroit has run play-action on 18.7% of their passes this year, #31-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Lions have faced the #23-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.4%).
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NEUTRAL:
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St. Brown ranks in the #50 percentile and has put up 8.05 yards per target this season.As a unit, the Packers cornerbacks rank #12 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Detroit has run the #19-fastest paced offense this season.THE BLITZ projects Detroit to drop back to pass on 60.5% of their plays in this game (#19-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Detroit's O-Line grades out as the #17-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find St. Brown open.Detroit's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.43 seconds on average this year (#13-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects St. Brown to exceed his player prop total 54.3% of the time. He projects for 73.6 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $3.99. That makes its return on investment yield +4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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