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Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions
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Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 56.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 58.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 56.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, St. Brown ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 74.3% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, St. Brown ranks in the #75 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 81.9% of Detroit's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, St. Brown ranks in the #83 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 20.5% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects St. Brown for a 8.5% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.St. Brown's 78.9% completion rate marks him in the #92 percentile among receivers.As a unit, the Seahawks safeties rank #28 in pass coverage.The Detroit Lions are projected to run 63.8 plays in this matchup, the #8-most on the game slate.The Lions are a 9.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.
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CONS:
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Bad weather has been shown to have a negative impact on a receiver's numbers, and the weatherman currently calls for rain in this game.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 56.7% of the time (#30 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Detroit to drop back to pass on 55.8% of their plays in this game (#23-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Detroit has run play-action on 18.7% of their passes this year, #31-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Lions have faced the #23-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.4%).
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NEUTRAL:
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St. Brown ranks in the #37 percentile and has put up 7.65 yards per target this season.The Seahawks's pass defense ranks #11-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 151 yards per game this season.The Seattle Seahawks have allowed 8.04 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #15-highest among NFL opponents.The Seattle Seahawks rank #21-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 67.2%.As a unit, the Seahawks cornerbacks rank #21 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Detroit has run the #20-fastest paced offense this season.Detroit's O-Line grades out as the #17-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find St. Brown open.Detroit's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.43 seconds on average this year (#13-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects St. Brown to exceed his player prop total 52.0% of the time. He projects for 59.0 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$3.20 with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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