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Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
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Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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St. Brown has been on the field for 73.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #77 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 80.8% of Detroit's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #75 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 18.4% -- #75 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, St. Brown is projected for 4.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers.St. Brown has been in the #91 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 77.8% completion rate.This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.The Lions project to run 64.3 plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.Detroit is a 13.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 63.8% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.18 yards per target this season, ranking in the #23 percentile.Arizona's defense has allowed 141 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#25-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #24-most yards per target (7.86) against the Cardinals this season.This offense passes the ball 58.3% of the time in a neutral context (#26 in the NFL).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Detroit Lions have run play-action on 18.7% of their passes this year, #31-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Detroit has faced the #23-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.4%).
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NEUTRAL:
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The Cardinals have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.7% of their targets this season, (#17-most in the league).Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks rank as the #11 unit in pass coverage.Arizona Cardinals safeties rank as the #12 unit in pass coverage.The Detroit Lions have had the #17-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.St. Brown's offensive line has been #17 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Lions offensive line has given the QB 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#13-most time in the league).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 60.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.0% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $11.96. It's return on investment would yeild 10%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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