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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Denver Broncos vs Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 48.7 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 47.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -110.
  • St. Brown has been on the field for 73.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #77 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 80.1% of Detroit's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #74 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 17.1% -- #71 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, St. Brown is projected for 5.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #94 percentile among wide receivers.
  • St. Brown has been in the #91 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 78.2% completion rate.
  • Denver Broncos cornerbacks rank as the #26 unit in pass coverage.
  • Detroit is a 12.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This offenses projects to pass 61.4% of the time in this contest (#10 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

  • CONS:
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.25 yards per target this season, ranking in the #24 percentile.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #24-most yards per target (7.87) against the Broncos this season.
  • The Broncos have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 59.3% of their targets this season, (#29-most in the league).
  • The Lions project to run 59.5 plays in this contest, the #28-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 58.2% of the time in a neutral context (#25 in the NFL).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Detroit Lions have run play-action on 18.7% of their passes this year, #31-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Detroit has faced the #23-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.4%).

  • Denver's defense has allowed 156 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#19-most in football).
  • Denver Broncos safeties rank as the #22 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Detroit Lions have had the #17-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • St. Brown's offensive line has been #18 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Lions offensive line has given the QB 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#13-most time in the league).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 54.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.3% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $3.95. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.

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