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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -115.
  • St. Brown has been on the field for 65.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #67 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 75.2% of Detroit's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #67 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, St. Brown is projected for 3.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #89 percentile among wide receivers.
  • St. Brown has been in the #87 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 77.3% completion rate.
  • This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.
  • Minnesota's defense has allowed 189 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#3-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #7-most yards per target (9.30) against the Vikings this season.
  • Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks rank as the #32 unit in pass coverage.
  • Detroit is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.

  • CONS:
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.21 yards per target this season, ranking in the #24 percentile.
  • Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the #7 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offense passes the ball 57.8% of the time in a neutral context (#27 in the NFL).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Detroit Lions have run play-action on 18.7% of their passes this year, #31-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Detroit has faced the #23-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.4%).

  • His target share this season has been 14.4% -- #63 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • The Vikings have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 64.9% of their targets this season, (#22-most in the league).
  • The Detroit Lions have had the #19-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Lions project to run 62.5 plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.
  • This offenses projects to pass 61.4% of the time in this contest (#12 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • St. Brown's offensive line has been #18 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Lions offensive line has given the QB 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#13-most time in the league).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 48.9 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.5% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.63. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.

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