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Amari Cooper Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys
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Amari Cooper Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 48.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 46.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Cooper has been on the field for 65.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #67 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 85.6% of Dallas's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #79 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 20.0% -- #79 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 10.28 yards per target this season, ranking in the #89 percentile.Cooper has been in the #74 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 70.2% completion rate.New Orleans's defense has allowed 180 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#6-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #3-most yards per target (9.45) against the Saints this season.The Saints have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 68.6% of their targets this season, (#7-most in the league).New Orleans Saints cornerbacks rank as the #25 unit in pass coverage.The Dallas Cowboys have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 62.5% of the time in a neutral context (#11 in the NFL).Cooper's offensive line has been #3 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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CONS:
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New Orleans Saints safeties rank as the #8 unit in pass coverage.The Cowboys project to run 61.1 plays in this contest, the #26-most of the week.Dallas is a 6.5 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Cooper is projected for -2.3% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #30 percentile among wide receivers.This offenses projects to pass 58.6% of the time in this contest (#20 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Cowboys offensive line has given the QB 2.45 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#17-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Dallas Cowboys have run play-action on 25.5% of their passes this year, #16-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Dallas has faced the #16-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.0%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 50.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.62 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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