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Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints
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Right now, Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 59.5 (-110/-120), with an implied projection of 58.6 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 61.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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His 70.4% snap rate this year puts him in the #98 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 59.7% this year puts him in the #90 percentile among running backs.This year, the Saints have played in 9 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #5-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.The Saints enter as a 4.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.New Orleans has been the #3-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 43.1% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #2-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 50.9% of their plays.The Falcons defense has allowed 132 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #26-least in football.The linebackers of Atlanta have been the #29-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Atlanta have been the #29-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Falcons have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #30-most in the NFL this year at 7.8% of the time.
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CONS:
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Kamara finds himself in the #83 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 62 yards.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 0-mph wind in this game.The New Orleans Saints are projected to run 61.5 plays in this matchup, the #24-most on the game slate.New Orleans has faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (18.3% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and New Orleans's ranks #17 in that regard this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Kamara for a -7.0% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.In a neutral context, New Orleans has run the #20-fastest paced offense this season.The Atlanta Falcons have allowed 4.60 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #21-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Atlanta have been the #14-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of Atlanta have been the #18-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Kamara to exceed his player prop total 53.3% of the time. He projects for 63.8 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $1.95. That makes its return on investment yield +2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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