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Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins
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Right now, Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 59.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 61.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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His 70.4% snap rate this year puts him in the #98 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 60.0% this year puts him in the #89 percentile among running backs.This year, the Saints have played in 7 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #6-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.New Orleans has been the #3-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 42.7% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #2-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 49.8% of their plays.The linebackers of Miami have been the #23-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Kamara finds himself in the #90 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 66 yards.This week, THE BLITZ projects Kamara for a -13.8% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Teams run the ball less when they're in a dome and there's no wind, which will be the case for New Orleans this week.The New Orleans Saints are projected to run 61.1 plays in this matchup, the #27-most on the game slate.The Saints enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.The Dolphins defense has allowed 104 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #8-least in football.The defensive ends of Miami have been the #5-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.New Orleans has faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (18.3% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Dolphins have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #9-most in the NFL this year at 18.2% of the time.
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NEUTRAL:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and New Orleans's ranks #16 in that regard this season.In a neutral context, New Orleans has run the #21-fastest paced offense this season.The Miami Dolphins have allowed 4.56 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #20-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Miami have been the #15-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Miami have been the #13-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Kamara to exceed his player prop total 48.7% of the time. He projects for 57.9 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$4.79 with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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