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Allen Robinson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
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Allen Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Robinson has been on the field for 83.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 87.5% of Chicago's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #85 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 22.2% -- #87 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Chicago is a 12.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.39 yards per target this season, ranking in the #27 percentile.Green Bay's defense has allowed 143 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#24-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #30-most yards per target (7.33) against the Packers this season.The Packers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 57.4% of their targets this season, (#32-most in the league).The Bears project to run 60.1 plays in this contest, the #27-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 57.2% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL).
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Robinson is projected for -0.7% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #50 percentile among wide receivers.Robinson has been in the #35 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 61.0% completion rate.Green Bay Packers cornerbacks rank as the #19 unit in pass coverage.Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the #11 unit in pass coverage.The Chicago Bears have had the #21-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offenses projects to pass 55.7% of the time in this contest (#21 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Robinson's offensive line has been #22 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Bears offensive line has given the QB 2.44 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#16-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Chicago Bears have run play-action on 26.9% of their passes this year, #13-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Chicago has faced the #19-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.2%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 42.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.0% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $1.14. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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