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Allen Robinson

Allen Robinson Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
 
 
 
Allen Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • Robinson has been on the field for 83.9% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 87.5% of Chicago's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #85 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 22.2% -- #87 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Chicago is a 12.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.

  • CONS:
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.39 yards per target this season, ranking in the #27 percentile.
  • Green Bay's defense has allowed 143 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#24-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #30-most yards per target (7.33) against the Packers this season.
  • The Packers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 57.4% of their targets this season, (#32-most in the league).
  • The Bears project to run 60.1 plays in this contest, the #27-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 57.2% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL).

  • NEUTRAL:
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Robinson is projected for -0.7% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #50 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Robinson has been in the #35 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 61.0% completion rate.
  • Green Bay Packers cornerbacks rank as the #19 unit in pass coverage.
  • Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the #11 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Chicago Bears have had the #21-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • This offenses projects to pass 55.7% of the time in this contest (#21 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Robinson's offensive line has been #22 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Bears offensive line has given the QB 2.44 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#16-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Chicago Bears have run play-action on 26.9% of their passes this year, #13-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Chicago has faced the #19-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.2%).

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 42.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.0% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $1.14. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
     
     
     
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