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Allen Lazard

Allen Lazard Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Baltimore Ravens vs Green Bay Packers
Allen Lazard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 29.8 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -110.
  • Lazard has been on the field for 75.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #78 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 75.7% of Green Bay's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #69 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Lazard is projected for 4.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #87 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Baltimore's defense has allowed 173 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#7-most in football).
  • Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks rank as the #24 unit in pass coverage.
  • Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the #25 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offense passes the ball 64.6% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL).

  • CONS:
  • The Ravens have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 58.8% of their targets this season, (#30-most in the league).
  • The Green Bay Packers have had the #32-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Packers project to run 59.6 plays in this contest, the #30-most of the week.
  • Green Bay is a 9.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

  • His target share this season has been 10.9% -- #55 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.31 yards per target this season, ranking in the #55 percentile.
  • Lazard has been in the #60 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 67.1% completion rate.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #11-most yards per target (8.69) against the Ravens this season.
  • This offenses projects to pass 59.9% of the time in this contest (#13 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Lazard's offensive line has been #12 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Packers offensive line has given the QB 2.45 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#17-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Green Bay Packers have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Green Bay has faced the #15-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.6%).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 36.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.3% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.19. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.

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