| |
Allen Lazard Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Baltimore Ravens vs Green Bay Packers
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Allen Lazard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 29.8 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -110.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
Lazard has been on the field for 75.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #78 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 75.7% of Green Bay's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #69 percentile among wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Lazard is projected for 4.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #87 percentile among wide receivers.Baltimore's defense has allowed 173 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#7-most in football).Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks rank as the #24 unit in pass coverage.Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the #25 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 64.6% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL).
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
The Ravens have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 58.8% of their targets this season, (#30-most in the league).The Green Bay Packers have had the #32-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Packers project to run 59.6 plays in this contest, the #30-most of the week.Green Bay is a 9.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
His target share this season has been 10.9% -- #55 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.31 yards per target this season, ranking in the #55 percentile.Lazard has been in the #60 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 67.1% completion rate.Opposing wideouts have put up the #11-most yards per target (8.69) against the Ravens this season.This offenses projects to pass 59.9% of the time in this contest (#13 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Lazard's offensive line has been #12 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Packers offensive line has given the QB 2.45 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#17-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Green Bay Packers have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Green Bay has faced the #15-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.6%).
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 36.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.3% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.19. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
