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Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams
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Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 67.5 (-105/-125) with an implied projection of 67.1 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 69.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 67.5 @ -125.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Mattison is projected for 48% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks as the biggest increase among running backs this week.Mattison has averaged 4.3 yards per rush attempt this season, putting him in the 76th percentile among running backs.Minnesota has played in 9 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (2nd-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating how often they run, which should balance back out under normal conditions.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, but the Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders just 4.9% of the time this season, lowest in the NFL.The Vikings project to run 66.1 total plays in this contest, the #2-most of the week.
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CONS:
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The Los Angeles Rams have ranked 6th-best against the run this year, holding opponents to 99 yards per game on the ground.Rams defensive tackles have ranked #1 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Minnesota Vikings offensive line has ranked as the 3rd-worst in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Teams tend to pass the ball more when their starting running back is out, as is the case for Minnesota this week.Minnesota is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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Mattison has been the #46-leading rusher this season, tallying 33 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 25.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #41 percentile among running backs.He has received 33.2% of Minnesota's carries this year -- #46 percentile when it comes to running backs.This offense runs the ball 40.2% of the time in a neutral context (#14 in the NFL), and they project to run 40.2% of the time in this contest.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 72.6 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.6% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.04 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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