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Alex Collins Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Houston Texans vs Seattle Seahawks
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Alex Collins Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 54.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 43.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #68 percentile among running backs.He has received 49.3% of Seattle's carries this year -- #27 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #5-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Seattle is a 9.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to runs 44.9% of the time in this contest (#7 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Houston Texans have ranked #32 against the run this year, holding opponents to 147 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Houston's defense has allowed 4.84 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#30-least in football).Texans defensive ends have ranked #23 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Texans linebackers have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Texans safeties have ranked #31 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked box 9.2% of the time this season -- #28-most in football.
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CONS:
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The Seattle Seahawks offensive line has ranked #28 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.This offense runs the ball 36.5% of the time in a neutral context (#23 in the NFL), and they project to run 36.5% of the time in this contest.Texans defensive tackles have ranked #8 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Collins has been the #38-leading rusher this season, tallying 40 yards per game on the ground.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Collins is projected for -6.9% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Seattle has played in the #11-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Seahawks project to run 62.8 total plays in this contest, the #17-most of the week.The Houston Texans have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #11 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 57.8 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 62.4% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $19.25. It's return on investment would yeild 17%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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