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A.J. Green Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - NFC Wild Card Game
Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals
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Right now, A.J. Green Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 42.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Green ranks in the #85 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 81.5% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Green ranks in the #78 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 83.6% of Arizona's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Green ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 17.0% of passes this season.Green ranks in the #77 percentile and has put up 9.35 yards per target this season.The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.As a unit, the Rams safeties rank #24 in pass coverage.The Arizona Cardinals are projected to run 65.6 plays in this matchup, the #1-most on the game slate.The Cardinals enter as a 3.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Arizona to drop back to pass on 59.9% of their plays in this game (#9-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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CONS:
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Green's 58.7% completion rate marks him in the #24 percentile among receivers.The Los Angeles Rams have allowed 7.39 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #4-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Rams cornerbacks rank #3 in pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Green for a -0.5% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Rams's pass defense ranks #14-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 144 yards per game this season.The Los Angeles Rams rank #13-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.1%.In a neutral context, Arizona has run the #15-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.4% of the time (#15 in the NFL).Arizona's O-Line grades out as the #14-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Green open.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Green to exceed his player prop total 49.6% of the time. He projects for 45.1 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$4.27 with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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