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A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Baltimore Ravens vs Green Bay Packers
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A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 55.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 56.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has received 44.4% of Green Bay's carries this year -- #31 percentile when it comes to running backs.Green Bay is a 9.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Ravens defensive tackles have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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The Green Bay Packers offensive line has ranked #24 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.The Green Bay Packers have had the #32-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Packers project to run 59.6 total plays in this contest, the #30-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 35.4% of the time in a neutral context (#25 in the NFL), and they project to run 35.4% of the time in this contest.The Baltimore Ravens have ranked #1 against the run this year, holding opponents to 84 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Baltimore's defense has allowed 3.96 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#4-least in football).Ravens defensive ends have ranked #6 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 18.4% of the time this season, ranking as the #8 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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Dillon has been the #29-leading rusher this season, tallying 47 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 41.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #66 percentile among running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Dillon is projected for 7.7% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Green Bay has played in the #12-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offenses projects to runs 40.1% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Ravens linebackers have ranked #15 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Ravens safeties have ranked #15 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Green Bay Packers have faced a stacked box 14.6% of the time this season -- #15-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 60.2 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.0% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.05 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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