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A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
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A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 51.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 55.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has received 42.6% of Green Bay's carries this year -- #33 percentile when it comes to running backs.Green Bay is a 12.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to runs 42.3% of the time in this contest (#10 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Chicago Bears have ranked #27 against the run this year, holding opponents to 129 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Chicago's defense has allowed 4.75 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#28-least in football).Bears defensive tackles have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Bears linebackers have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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The Green Bay Packers offensive line has ranked #24 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.The Green Bay Packers have had the #32-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense runs the ball 35.9% of the time in a neutral context (#24 in the NFL), and they project to run 35.9% of the time in this contest.
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NEUTRAL:
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Dillon has been the #32-leading rusher this season, tallying 45 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 40.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #66 percentile among running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Dillon is projected for 0.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Green Bay has played in the #11-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Packers project to run 60.8 total plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.Bears defensive ends have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Bears safeties have ranked #20 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Green Bay Packers have faced a stacked box 14.6% of the time this season -- #15-most in football.The Chicago Bears have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 14.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #16 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 56.4 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.91 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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