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A.J. Dillon

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 51.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 55.5 @ -115.
  • He has received 42.6% of Green Bay's carries this year -- #33 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Green Bay is a 12.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • This offenses projects to runs 42.3% of the time in this contest (#10 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Chicago Bears have ranked #27 against the run this year, holding opponents to 129 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Chicago's defense has allowed 4.75 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#28-least in football).
  • Bears defensive tackles have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Bears linebackers have ranked #27 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • CONS:
  • The Green Bay Packers offensive line has ranked #24 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • The Green Bay Packers have had the #32-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • This offense runs the ball 35.9% of the time in a neutral context (#24 in the NFL), and they project to run 35.9% of the time in this contest.

  • Dillon has been the #32-leading rusher this season, tallying 45 yards per game on the ground.
  • He has been on the field for 40.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #66 percentile among running backs.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Dillon is projected for 0.6% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • Green Bay has played in the #11-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Packers project to run 60.8 total plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.
  • Bears defensive ends have ranked #18 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Bears safeties have ranked #20 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Green Bay Packers have faced a stacked box 14.6% of the time this season -- #15-most in football.
  • The Chicago Bears have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 14.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #16 most in the league.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 56.4 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.7% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.91 and with a negative ROI of -5%.

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