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A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Tennessee Titans vs Miami Dolphins
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Right now, A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 69.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 68.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 69.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of route running, Brown ranks in the #68 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 76.3% of Tennessee's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Brown ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 28.2% of passes this season.This year, the Titans have played in 3 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #19-most in football and means Brown's numbers may be artificially inflated.The Dolphins's pass defense ranks #27-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 171 yards per game this season.Tennessee's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.32 seconds on average this year (#2-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Tennessee has run play-action on 28.5% of their passes this year, #11-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Titans have faced the #2-most stacked boxes in the league this year (22.7%).
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CONS:
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Bad weather has been shown to have a negative impact on a receiver's numbers, and the weatherman currently calls for rain in this game.As a unit, the Dolphins safeties rank #7 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Tennessee has run the #26-fastest paced offense this season.The Titans enter as a 3.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 56.0% of the time (#31 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Tennessee to drop back to pass on 52.4% of their plays in this game (#27-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Tennessee's O-Line grades out as the #29-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Brown open.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Brown ranks in the #60 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 56.4% of his team's snaps this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Brown for a 0.8% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Brown ranks in the #48 percentile and has put up 8.02 yards per target this season.Brown's 61.2% completion rate marks him in the #36 percentile among receivers.The Miami Dolphins have allowed 8.48 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #21-highest among NFL opponents.The Miami Dolphins rank #13-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.7%.As a unit, the Dolphins cornerbacks rank #16 in pass coverage.The Tennessee Titans are projected to run 63.2 plays in this matchup, the #14-most on the game slate.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Brown to exceed his player prop total 44.6% of the time. He projects for 62.1 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $4.07. That makes its return on investment yield +4%.
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