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Adam Humphries Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Washington Football Team vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Right now, Adam Humphries Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-120), with an implied projection of 26.9 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Humphries's 69.9% completion rate marks him in the #73 percentile among receivers.This year, the WFT have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Humphries's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.As a unit, the Eagles safeties rank #27 in pass coverage.The Washington Football Team are projected to run 64.2 plays in this matchup, the #6-most on the game slate.The WFT enter as a 6.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.Washington's O-Line grades out as the #5-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Humphries open.Washington has run play-action on 34.1% of their passes this year, #3-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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CONS:
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Humphries ranks in the #20 percentile and has put up 7.05 yards per target this season.The Eagles's pass defense ranks #2-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 129 yards per game this season.The Philadelphia Eagles have allowed 7.41 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #5-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Eagles cornerbacks rank #1 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Washington has run the #23-fastest paced offense this season.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.9% of the time (#23 in the NFL).Washington's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.58 seconds on average this year (#31-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The WFT have faced the #32-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.3%).
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of playing time, Humphries ranks in the #61 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 58.5% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Humphries ranks in the #62 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 68.9% of Washington's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Humphries ranks in the #55 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 12.1% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Humphries for a 2.4% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The Philadelphia Eagles rank #12-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.6%.THE BLITZ projects Washington to drop back to pass on 60.1% of their plays in this game (#15-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Humphries to exceed his player prop total 53.7% of the time. He projects for 30.9 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $2.81. That makes its return on investment yield +3%.
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