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Adam Humphries Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Football Team
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Adam Humphries Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Humphries has been in the #82 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 73.0% completion rate.Washington has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Dallas's defense has allowed 174 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#5-most in football).The WFT project to run 65.4 plays in this contest, the #4-most of the week.Washington is a 10.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 63.0% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Humphries's offensive line has been #6 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Washington Football Team have run play-action on 34.1% of their passes this year, #3-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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The Cowboys have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 57.0% of their targets this season, (#32-most in the league).Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the #8 unit in pass coverage.The Washington Football Team have had the #23-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The WFT offensive line has given the QB 2.58 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#31-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Washington has faced the #32-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.3%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Humphries has been on the field for 58.0% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #60 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 68.5% of Washington's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #62 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 11.6% -- #55 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Humphries is projected for 2.9% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #80 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.72 yards per target this season, ranking in the #38 percentile.Opposing wideouts have put up the #19-most yards per target (8.08) against the Cowboys this season.Dallas Cowboys cornerbacks rank as the #14 unit in pass coverage.This offense passes the ball 59.1% of the time in a neutral context (#22 in the NFL).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 36.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.4% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $10.50. It's return on investment would yeild 9%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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