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Adam Humphries Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Washington Football Team vs Seattle Seahawks
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Adam Humphries Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Washington has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Seattle Seahawks cornerbacks rank as the #27 unit in pass coverage.Seattle Seahawks safeties rank as the #23 unit in pass coverage.The WFT project to run 63.8 plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.Humphries's offensive line has been #4 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Washington Football Team have run play-action on 34.9% of their passes this year, #2-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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The Washington Football Team have had the #23-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 59.9% of the time in a neutral context (#23 in the NFL).The WFT offensive line has given the QB 2.58 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#31-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Washington has faced the #31-most stacked boxes in the league this year (7.2%).
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NEUTRAL:
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Humphries has been on the field for 60.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #62 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 70.4% of Washington's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #63 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 9.8% -- #52 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Humphries is projected for -1.6% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #37 percentile among wide receivers.Seattle's defense has allowed 159 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#16-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #22-most yards per target (7.97) against the Seahawks this season.The Seahawks have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.5% of their targets this season, (#19-most in the league).This offenses projects to pass 59.6% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 20.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$7.31 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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