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Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings
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Right now, Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 262.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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This year, at #7-best in the league, Rodgers has passed for274 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #2-best in the league, completing passes at a 69.5% clip.In terms of efficiency, Rodgers has been #2 in the NFL this season. He averages 8.06 yards per target.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 64.9% of the time (#7 in the NFL).Minnesota's #27-ranked pass defense has allowed 266 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, Minnesota's defense is #26-best. This is because they allowed 8.12 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #32-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Vikings, they've stacked the box on 16.7% of their plays this season, #10-most in football.
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, Green Bay has run the #32-fastest paced offense this season.The Green Bay Packers are projected to run 61.6 plays in this matchup, the #26-most on the game slate.The Packers are a 12.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.Minnesota has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.4% of their targets, which ranks them #9-best in the NFL.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #6-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Minnesota Vikings have had the #2-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Minnesota's defensive tackles rank #8 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, the Packers have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.THE BLITZ projects Green Bay to drop back to pass on 58.4% of their plays in this game (#20-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Green Bay's O-Line grades out as the #12-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Green Bay's offensive has kept pressure off Aaron Rodgers for 2.45 seconds on average this year (#17-most in the NFL).Green Bay has run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Packers have faced the #15-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.6%).When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Minnesota's defensive ends rank #18 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Minnesota's linebackers rank #21 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Rodgers to exceed his player prop total 46.7% of the time. He projects for 253.3 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$0.34 with a negative ROI of 0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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