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Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Baltimore Ravens vs Green Bay Packers
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Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 266.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 278.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 266.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Rodgers has passed for 274 yards per game this year, #8-best in the league.He's been the #5-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 68.5% clip.Efficiency-wise, Rodgers has been #3 in the NFL this season, averaging 8.02 yards per target.This offense passes the ball 64.6% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL).The Baltimore Ravens enter this game with the #28-best pass defense this season, allowing 272 yards per game through the air.Baltimore's defense has been #28-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.31 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Baltimore Ravens have had the #24-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Baltimore Ravens have had the #25-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Ravens defensive tackles have ranked #31 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays this season, #8-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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The Green Bay Packers have had the #32-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Packers project to run 59.6 plays in this contest, the #30-most of the week.Green Bay is a 9.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.The Ravens have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.6% of their targets, ranking #3 in the NFL.The Baltimore Ravens have had the #3-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Ravens linebackers have ranked #8 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Green Bay has played in the #12-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.This offenses projects to pass 59.9% of the time in this contest (#13 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Aaron Rodgers's offensive line has been #12 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Packers offensive line has given Aaron Rodgers 2.45 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Green Bay Packers have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Green Bay have faced the #15-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.6%).Ravens defensive ends have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 249.2 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 43.7% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $5.98. It's return on investment would yeild 5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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