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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Baltimore Ravens vs Green Bay Packers
 
 
 
Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 266.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 278.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 266.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • Rodgers has passed for 274 yards per game this year, #8-best in the league.
  • He's been the #5-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 68.5% clip.
  • Efficiency-wise, Rodgers has been #3 in the NFL this season, averaging 8.02 yards per target.
  • This offense passes the ball 64.6% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL).
  • The Baltimore Ravens enter this game with the #28-best pass defense this season, allowing 272 yards per game through the air.
  • Baltimore's defense has been #28-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.31 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have had the #24-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have had the #25-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Ravens defensive tackles have ranked #31 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays this season, #8-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • CONS:
  • The Green Bay Packers have had the #32-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Packers project to run 59.6 plays in this contest, the #30-most of the week.
  • Green Bay is a 9.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • The Ravens have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.6% of their targets, ranking #3 in the NFL.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have had the #3-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Ravens linebackers have ranked #8 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • Green Bay has played in the #12-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • This offenses projects to pass 59.9% of the time in this contest (#13 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Aaron Rodgers's offensive line has been #12 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Packers offensive line has given Aaron Rodgers 2.45 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Green Bay Packers have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Green Bay have faced the #15-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.6%).
  • Ravens defensive ends have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 249.2 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 43.7% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $5.98. It's return on investment would yeild 5%.
     
     
     
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