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Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams
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Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 261.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Rodgers has passed for 259 yards per game this year, #11-best in the league.He's been the #9-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.7% clip.Efficiency-wise, Rodgers has been #6 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.91 yards per target.This offense passes the ball 64.1% of the time in a neutral context (#9 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 63.9% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Aaron Rodgers's offensive line has been #11 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Rams have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.8% of their targets, ranking #27 in the NFL.
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CONS:
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The Green Bay Packers have had the #32-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #1-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Rams defensive tackles have ranked #4 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Los Angeles's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 2 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #3-quickest in the NFL.The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box on 4.9% of their plays this season, #32-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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Green Bay has played in the #10-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Packers project to run 62.4 plays in this contest, the #18-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Green Bay Packers have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Green Bay have faced the #18-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#14.2%).The Los Angeles Rams enter this game with the #17-best pass defense this season, allowing 258 yards per game through the air.Los Angeles's defense has been #12-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.63 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #18-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #22-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Rams defensive ends have ranked #13 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Rams linebackers have ranked #14 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 257.8 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.7% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$4.62 and with a negative ROI of -4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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