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Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings
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Right now, Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 55.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 55.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 55.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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His 60.2% snap rate this year puts him in the #92 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 48.5% this year puts him in the #78 percentile among running backs.The Packers are a 12.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.The Vikings defense has allowed 129 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #25-least in football.The Minnesota Vikings have allowed 4.68 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #25-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Minnesota have been the #30-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Minnesota have been the #31-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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Jones finds himself in the #70 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 52 yards.The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Green Bay's ranks #23 in that regard this season.In a neutral context, Green Bay has run the #32-fastest paced offense this season.The Green Bay Packers are projected to run 61.6 plays in this matchup, the #26-most on the game slate.Green Bay has been the #26-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 35.1% run rate in a neutral context.The defensive tackles of Minnesota have been the #8-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Minnesota have been the #1-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The Vikings have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #10-most in the NFL this year at 16.7% of the time.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Jones for a 1.1% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Packers have played in the #13-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, Green Bay's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #13-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 41.6% of their plays.Green Bay has faced the #15-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (14.6% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Jones to exceed his player prop total 52.6% of the time. He projects for 58.7 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.91 with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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