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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns
Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 50.3 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 53.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -110.
  • He has been on the field for 60.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #91 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 48.2% of Green Bay's carries this year -- #25 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Green Bay is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Browns defensive tackles have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • CONS:
  • Jones has been the #22-leading rusher this season, tallying 51 yards per game on the ground.
  • The Green Bay Packers offensive line has ranked #23 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • The Green Bay Packers have had the #32-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Packers project to run 60.5 total plays in this contest, the #30-most of the week.
  • This offense runs the ball 35.1% of the time in a neutral context (#25 in the NFL), and they project to run 35.1% of the time in this contest.
  • The Cleveland Browns have ranked #9 against the run this year, holding opponents to 104 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Cleveland's defense has allowed 4.14 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#8-least in football).
  • Browns defensive ends have ranked #8 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Browns linebackers have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jones is projected for -3.1% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • Green Bay has played in the #13-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • This offenses projects to runs 38.7% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Browns safeties have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Green Bay Packers have faced a stacked box 14.6% of the time this season -- #15-most in football.
  • The Cleveland Browns have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 13.2% of the time this season, ranking as the #20 most in the league.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 48.2 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.8% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$2.56 and with a negative ROI of -2%.

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