| |
Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 50.3 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 53.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -110.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
He has been on the field for 60.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #91 percentile among running backs.He has received 48.2% of Green Bay's carries this year -- #25 percentile when it comes to running backs.Green Bay is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Browns defensive tackles have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
Jones has been the #22-leading rusher this season, tallying 51 yards per game on the ground.The Green Bay Packers offensive line has ranked #23 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.The Green Bay Packers have had the #32-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Packers project to run 60.5 total plays in this contest, the #30-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 35.1% of the time in a neutral context (#25 in the NFL), and they project to run 35.1% of the time in this contest.The Cleveland Browns have ranked #9 against the run this year, holding opponents to 104 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Cleveland's defense has allowed 4.14 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#8-least in football).Browns defensive ends have ranked #8 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Browns linebackers have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Jones is projected for -3.1% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Green Bay has played in the #13-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offenses projects to runs 38.7% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Browns safeties have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Green Bay Packers have faced a stacked box 14.6% of the time this season -- #15-most in football.The Cleveland Browns have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 13.2% of the time this season, ranking as the #20 most in the league.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 48.2 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 48.8% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$2.56 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
