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Tennessee Titans (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6-1)
Pittsburgh's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 374 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #10 spot among the league's worst. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #2-most yards per carry: 4.98. Not rub salt in the wound, but Pittsburgh has had these struggles despite stacking the box with an extra defender 19.3% of the time -- #5-most of any team in football. You'd think that would at least put a band-aid on the issue, but to this point it doesn't seem to be working very well.
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When it comes to their offense, the Steelers check in at #22 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 250 yards per game (#14 in football). Their run game has ranked #30 with 3.62 yards per attempt on the ground. They hit their peak effectiveness when targeting tight ends, who have completed 76.1% of those targets this year (#6-best in the league).
Tennessee's biggest weakness has been their pass defense, ranking #30 in the league while allowing 276 yards per game through the air. The Titans have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing wide receivers, allowing them to rack up 196 yards per game (#2-worst). Tennessee's pass rush has been weak this year, being weighed down by their defensive tackles, which check in as just the #28-best unit in terms of getting to the passer.
In terms of their offense, the Titans have ranked #12 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 227 yards per game (#21 in football). On the ground they've ranked #10 with 4.68 yards per carry. They've been most effective throwing to tight ends, who have hauled in 75.0% of the balls thrown their way this year (ranking #8).
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The Steelers will have had extra days rest (10 days) between games. The extra time should help the Steelers get healthier and prepare for the game. This may enhance their home field advantage this week. It was quite the blowout the last time these two teams played. The Steelers won by double digits at home, crushing the Titans 40-17 in Week 7 of 2020. This week will mark back-to-back home games for the Steelers. Not having to travel should bode well for the Steelers, and this could slightly upgrade their home field advantage.
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The majority of the bets are on the Over with 63% of the bets and 87% of the cash. Compared to all the other game action this week, the Over has the highest percentage of cash this week.
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PROJECTION:
Pittsburgh Steelers - 20.70
Tennessee Titans - 20.02
Win Probability:
PIT 51% / TEN 49%
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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