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Tennessee Titans (8-3) at New England Patriots (7-4)
New England's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 331 yards per game -- #3-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #7-least yards per game: 229. The New England Patriots pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing tight ends, who have managed just 30 yards per game against them (#32-least in football). New England's best coverage unit has been their safeties, which grade out as the #3 unit in the NFL in this regard.
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When it comes to their offense, the Patriots check in at #13 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 251 yards per game (#13 in football). Their run game has ranked #16 with 4.48 yards per attempt on the ground. They hit their peak effectiveness when targeting running backs, who have completed 88.6% of those targets this year (#2-best in the league).
Tennessee's biggest strength has been their run defense, which ranks #6 in the league while allowing just 4.15 yards per carry this season. What makes Tennessee's success all the more impressive is that they've done this without stacking the box with an extra defender the way many teams try to plug the holes in their run defense. They've brought an extra defender up just 10.5% of the time, or #8-least in football. The Titans defensive tackles have played a big part in their ability to stop the run, ranking #5-best in the NFL by this measure.
In terms of their offense, the Titans have ranked #11 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 240 yards per game (#18 in football). On the ground they've ranked #14 with 4.51 yards per carry. They've been most effective throwing to running backs, who have hauled in 83.3% of the balls thrown their way this year (ranking #6).
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The Patriots have won 5 consecutive games, while the Titans have lost 1 in a row. The Patriots will have had extra days rest (10 days) between games. The extra time should help the Patriots get healthier and prepare for the game. This may enhance their home field advantage this week. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 18 in 2019. That game resulted in a road win for the Titans with a final score of 20-13. This will be the 3rd consecutive home game for the Patriots. Not having to travel should bode well for the Patriots, and this could slightly upgrade their home field advantage.
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This matchup has the #3 lowest Game Total this week. Low Totals imply there will be a lack of scoring opportunities and also correlates to a lack of offensive yards. Sizable line movement toward the Under has shifted the Game Total. It opened 46.5 before it was bet down to 43.0. The Over has approximately 61% of the bets, but only 43% of the cash.
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PROJECTION:
New England Patriots - 24.25
Tennessee Titans - 18.62
Win Probability:
NE 69% / TEN 31%
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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