Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Football Team - Week 12

Seattle Seahawks (3-7) at Washington Football Team (4-6)

Washington's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 381 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #9 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #5-most yards per game (279) against the WFT. Opposing wide receivers have given the WFT the most trouble, posting 186 yards per game against this defense (#4-worst in football). Washington's coverage problems have been exacerbated by their linebackers, who rank just #32 in the league in locking down opposing pass-catchers. Washington's defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their paltry pass rush this year, given that they grade out as the #6-worst unit in the NFL.

When it comes to their offense, the WFT check in at #16 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 240 yards per game (#19 in football). Their run game has ranked #22 with 4.32 yards per attempt on the ground. They hit their peak effectiveness when targeting tight ends, who have completed 78.2% of those targets this year (#4-best in the league).

Seattle's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #31 in the league while allowing 416 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to lock down the pass game, as they've allowed opposing QBs pass for the #2-most yards per game: 294. The Seahawks have been at their worst when it comes to shutting down opposing running backs, allowing them to rack up 70 yards per game (#1-worst). Seattle's worst position group in coverage has been their cornerbacks, which rank just #27 in the league in locking down route-runners. Seattle's pass rush has been weak this year, being weighed down by their defensive ends, which check in as just the #30-best unit in terms of getting to the passer.

In terms of their offense, the Seahawks have ranked #30 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 211 yards per game (#27 in football). On the ground they've ranked #23 with 4.32 yards per carry. They've been most effective throwing to tight ends, who have hauled in 87.0% of the balls thrown their way this year (ranking #1).

Both teams will be aided by additional days rest compared to a typical week. Every extra day helps, and both teams are likely to be healthier and more prepared for the game. This could lead to more efficient play on both sides of the ball. The visiting Seahawks will have to travel cross-country for this game. They will travel over ~2330 miles and across 3 time zones to get to Washington. Historically, cross-country road trips have an adverse effect on the visiting team, so it's possible the Seahawks and may have to battle jet lag or a disruption to their normal weekly routine. The long travel should help Washington's home field advantage. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 15 in 2020. That game resulted in a road win for the Seahawks with a final score of 20-15. This week will mark back-to-back home games for the WFT. Not having to travel should bode well for the WFT, and this could slightly upgrade their home field advantage.

The Game Total has moved a small amount since it opened. It opened 48.0 before it was bet down to 46.5. The betting handle for this Game Total is notable, because there is reverse line movement. The Over is receiving the majority of the betting handle, however the Game Total has shifted down 1.5 points. Approximately 61% of the bets and 51% of the Cash has been wagered on the Over. This may indicate some smart money was wagered on the Under as Sportsbooks often move lines based on sharp action and not raw betting handles.

PROJECTION:
Seattle Seahawks - 22.79
Washington Football Team - 22.54

Win Probability:
SEA 51% / WAS 49%

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