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New York Jets (2-8) at Houston Texans (2-8)
Week 12's contest between the New York Jets and the Houston Texans matches strength with weakness. The New York Jets pass offense has been one of the best units in the NFL, ranking #8 while averaging 272 yards per game. The Texans defense, meanwhile, has allowed 273 passing yards per game, #7-worst in the league. This should give New York a decided advantage, and they'll likely look to air it out this week.
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Where New York could perhaps capitalize the most is with their running backs. New York running backs have averaged 62 yards per game this season, #2-best in the NFL. They've caught 68.8% of the passes thrown in their direction (#31-best). They've averaged 6.69 yards per target (#11-best).
The Texans defense, meanwhile, has been very weak against running backs. Their linebackers and safeties have allowed 27 yards per game this season, #30-worst in the NFL. They've allowed opposing running backs to complete 80.3% of their targets (#20-worst). Opposing running backs have averaged 4.80 yards per target (#32-worst). If the Texans are to win this game, they'll have to find a way to stop—or at least slow down—New York's pass game, in particular their running backs. That won't be an easy task given how their defensive squad has performed thus far.
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The Jets have lost 5 straight road games, while the Texans have lost 3 straight home games. These road/home streaks make the game one of the more intresting matchups on the slate. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 15 in 2018. That game resulted in a home win for the Texans with a final score of 24-17.
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The Game Total has moved a small amount since it opened. It opened 46.5 before it was bet down to 44.5. The betting handle for this Game Total is noteworthy, because there is two sided action. The Under is receiving the majority of the Bets, however there is more Cash on the Over. Approximately 57% of the Bets have been on the Under, while 60% of the Cash has been wagered on the Over. This likely means there have been relatively large wagers on the Over.
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PROJECTION:
Houston Texans - 24.08
New York Jets - 21.62
Win Probability:
HOU 56% / NYJ 44%
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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