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New York Giants (4-8) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-5)
New York's biggest weakness has been their offense, checking in at #24 in the league with a mere 322 yards per game. A big part of their failure has been the quality (or lack thereof) of their rushing attack, which has been #7-worst in football with just 4.14 yards per carry. This has manifest itself in the #6-least rushing yards per game: 91. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and a worst running back can find success if he's given open space. It should come as no surprise then that New York's o-line ranks #8-worst in this regard. In failing to successfully establish the run, New York has also had trouble moving the ball through the air, averaging a paltry 6.38 yards per target, which ranks them #26 in football.
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In terms of their defense, the Giants have ranked #25 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 258 yards per game through the air against them (#19 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #21 with 4.56 yards per carry. New York has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 7.57 yards per target (#6-best). New York has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up a 91.3% completion rate (#2-highest).
Los Angeles's primary disadvantage has been their run defense, which has allowed a monstrous 4.87 yards per attempt on the ground this year, sliding them into the #2 spot among the league's worst. Chargers defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #5-worst unit in the NFL. This presents a decided disadvantage for Los Angeles given that the Giants ground game has been so good this year, rushing for 4.14 yards per carry (#26-best in the league).
When it comes to their offense, the Chargers check in at #7 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 283 yards per game (#4 in football). Their run game has ranked #6 with 4.92 yards per attempt on the ground. They hit their peak effectiveness when targeting running backs, who have accrued 49 yards per game (#7-best in the league).
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The visiting Giants will have to travel cross-country for this game. They will travel over ~2449 miles and across 3 time zones to get to Los Angeles. Historically, cross-country road trips have an adverse effect on the visiting team, so it's possible the Giants and may have to battle jet lag or a disruption to their normal weekly routine. The long travel should help Los Angeles's home field advantage. This will be a back-to-back road game for the Giants. Meanwhile, this will be back-to-back home games for the Chargers. The big difference in travel time between these two teams would favor the Chargers and may enhance their home field advantage this week.
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There has been some line movement on the Game Total toward the Under. It opened 46.5 before it was bet down to 43.5.
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PROJECTION:
Los Angeles Chargers - 28.59
New York Giants - 17.27
Win Probability:
LAC 83% / NYG 17%
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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