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New Orleans Saints (6-7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-3)
Tampa Bay's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #1 in the NFL at 440 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Buccaneers 333 yards per game through the air ranks #1-best in football this year. They haven’t made things easy for opposing defense given they they've also positioned themselves in the top 10 on the ground as well, rushing for 5.09 yards per carry. It's easy to see why they've done so well through the air when their offensive line has given the quarterback 2.40 seconds before feeling pressure (#7-most in football). Their wide receivers have played a big part in their offensive effectiveness, averaging 215 yards per game (ranking #2).
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When it comes to their defense, the Buccaneers check in at #10 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 264 yards per game against Tampa Bay this year (#22 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #9 against them with 4.28 yards per ground attempt. This Buccaneers defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, keeping them in check at just 7.19 yards per target (#2-best in the league). Tampa Bay's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have completed 80.4% of their passes (#2-highest in the league).
New Orleans's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #9 in the league while allowing just 349 yards per game. Much of their success has been in shutting down the run game, holding opposing ball-carriers to the #1-least yards per carry: 3.74. The Saints linebackers have played a big part in their ability to stop the run, ranking #1-best in the NFL by this measure.
In terms of their offense, the Saints have ranked #23 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 205 yards per game (#28 in football). On the ground they've ranked #22 with 4.28 yards per carry. They've been most efficient throwing to tight ends, who have racked up 7.90 yards per target (ranking #10).
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The Buccaneers are undefeated at home after winning 6 consecutive home games, while the Saints are 4-3 on the road. These two teams are divisional competitors. This rivalry should add extra significance to the game, and both teams are likely to be ultra motivated. It was quite the blowout the last time these two teams played. The road Saints won by double digits, smashing the Buccaneers 38-3 in Week 8 of 2021.
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The Game Total has moved a small amount since it opened. It opened 48.0 before it was bet down to 46.0. The Over has approximately 58% of the bets, but only 34% of the cash.
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PROJECTION:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 27.98
New Orleans Saints - 21.76
Win Probability:
TB 71% / NO 29%
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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