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New Orleans Saints (5-7) at New York Jets (3-9)
New York's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 420 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #1 spot among the league's worst. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #1-most yards per carry: 5.06. That kind of ineffectiveness has also leached over to their pass defense, which has landed them in the #32 spot in terms of yards per target (8.99). Not rub salt in the wound, but New York has had these struggles despite stacking the box with an extra defender 21.9% of the time -- #2-most of any team in football. You'd think that would at least put a band-aid on the issue, but to this point it doesn't seem to be working very well. Jets linebackers are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #1-worst unit in the NFL.
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When it comes to their offense, the Jets check in at #21 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 260 yards per game (#9 in football). Their run game has ranked #28 with 3.97 yards per attempt on the ground. They hit their peak effectiveness when targeting running backs, who have accrued 56 yards per game (#4-best in the league).
New Orleans's biggest strength has been their run defense, which ranks #1 in the league while allowing just 3.71 yards per carry this season. The Saints linebackers have played a big part in their ability to stop the run, ranking #1-best in the NFL by this measure. This represents a particular advantage for New Orleans given that the Jets have struggled so much with their run game this year, managing just 3.97 yards per carry (#5-worst in the league).
In terms of their offense, the Saints have ranked #25 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 206 yards per game (#27 in football). On the ground they've ranked #24 with 4.21 yards per carry. They've been most effective throwing to running backs, who have racked up 48 yards per game (ranking #9).
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The Saints have lost 5 consecutive games, while the Jets have lost 1 in a row. The Saints will have had extra days rest (10 days) between games. The extra time should help the Saints get healthier and prepare for the game. This may slightly downgrade the Jets home field advantage this week.
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This matchup has the #3 lowest Game Total this week. Low Totals imply there will be a lack of scoring opportunities and also correlates to a lack of offensive yards. The Game Total has moved a small amount since it opened. It opened 43.5 before it was bet down to 41.5.
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PROJECTION:
New Orleans Saints - 24.41
New York Jets - 15.56
Win Probability:
NO 77% / NYJ 23%
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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