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New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills - Week 13

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NE		BUF

New England Patriots (8-4) at Buffalo Bills (7-4)

Week 13’s contest between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills brings two strong defenses to the forefront. Both offenses will have their work cut out for them as they try to march down the field, and it's possible we see fewer points up on the scoreboard than either team is used to.

The Bills have held opposing offenses to just 290 yards per game this year, ranking #1-best in the league. They've found success largely through their pass defense, which ranks #1-best in football in terms of efficiency; Buffalo has held opposing quarterbacks to just 6.46 yards per target. Consequently, opposing teams have mustered just 200 total passing yards per game. They have been particularly effective in stopping wide receivers, holding them to just 128 yards per game -- good for #1-best in the NFL. The Bills are very adept at getting to the quarterback, as their defensive ends rank #7-best when it comes to rushing the passer.

The Patriots have allowed just 336 yards per game this year, ranking #5-best in the league. Their biggest strength has been their pass defense, which ranks #6-best in football in terms of efficiency; New England has held opposing quarterbacks to just 7.25 yards per target. As a result, opposing offenses have passed for just 219 total yards per game. They have been very effective in stopping tight ends, holding them to just 30 yards per game -- good for #1-best in the NFL. The Patriots are great at getting to the quarterback, as their linebackers rank #5-best when it comes to rushing the passer. In terms of pass coverage, their safeties have been among the best in the league, ranking #3 as a unit.

It's worth noting that, while New England's defense has been stellar, Buffalo's offense has also been great. They rank #4 in the NFL in yards per game with 408. This pitting of strength-vs.-strength should make for an interesting dynamic.

The Patriots have won 5 consecutive road games, while the Bills are 3-2 at home. Trends aren't always predictive, but to continuously win on the road is difficult regardless. If the Patriots road trend continues there may be a narrative reason why that's worth looking into. Both teams will be aided by additional days rest compared to a typical week. Every extra day helps, and both teams are likely to be healthier and more prepared for the game. This could lead to more efficient play on both sides of the ball. These two teams are divisional rivals. This rivalry should add extra significance to the game, and both teams are likely to be ultra motivated. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 16 in 2020. That game resulted in a home win for the Bills with a final score of 24-21. This will be a back-to-back road game for the Patriots. The extra travel won't help the Patriots, and this could slightly upgrade the Bills home field advantage.

This matchup has the #1 lowest Game Total this week. Low Totals imply there will be a lack of scoring opportunities and also correlates to a lack of offensive yards. The Game Total has had heavy line movement toward the Under. It opened 46.0 before it was bet down to 39.5. The Over has approximately 57% of the bets, but only 47% of the cash.

PROJECTION:
Buffalo Bills - 21.00
New England Patriots - 16.83

Win Probability:
BUF 65% / NE 35%

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