Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers - Week 12

Minnesota Vikings (5-5) at San Francisco 49ers (5-5)

Minnesota's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #8 in the league with 391 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #9-best in football with 267 yards per game. It's no wonder they've done so well through the air when their offensive line has given the quarterback 2.38 seconds before feeling pressure (good for #4-best in football). Their wide receivers have been particularly efficient, hauling in 74.4% of the balls thrown their way (ranking #2). It's also worth noting that opposing defenses have stacked the box a whopping 20.1% of the time against the Vikings in an attempt to stop the run game. But because passing is so much more important for an offensive to run effectively, this has opened up opportunities for Minnesota's offense to succeed through the air.

In terms of their defense, the Vikings have ranked #27 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 266 yards per game through the air against them (#21 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #21 with 4.60 yards per carry. Minnesota has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to a 62.2% completion rate (#3-lowest). Minnesota has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 194 yards per game (#3-worst).

San Francisco's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 339 yards per game -- #6-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #5-least yards per game: 225. The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing tight ends, who have managed just 37 yards per game against them (#30-least in football). San Francisco's best coverage unit has been their linebackers, which grade out as the #3 unit in the NFL in this regard.

When it comes to their offense, the 49ers check in at #19 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 230 yards per game (#22 in football). Their run game has ranked #20 with 4.43 yards per attempt on the ground. They hit their peak effectiveness when targeting wide receivers, who have accrued 9.58 yards per target (#3-best in the league).

The visiting Vikings will have to travel over ~1572 miles and across 2 time zones to get to San Francisco. Historically, long road trips have an adverse effect on the visiting team, so it's possible the Vikings and may have to battle jet lag or a disruption to their normal weekly routine. The long travel should help San Francisco's home field advantage. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 19 in 2019. That game resulted in a home win for the 49ers with a final score of 27-10. This will be a back-to-back road game for the Vikings. Meanwhile, this will be back-to-back home games for the 49ers. The big difference in travel time between these two teams would favor the 49ers and may enhance their home field advantage this week.

This matchup has the #3 highest Game Total this week. Large Totals imply there will be a lot of scoring opportunities and also correlates to a lot of offensive yards. The Over has approximately 71% of the bets, but only 49% of the cash.

PROJECTION:
San Francisco 49ers - 25.46
Minnesota Vikings - 22.79

Win Probability:
SF 57% / MIN 43%

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