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Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions - Week 13

 
 
 
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MIN DET
Minnesota Vikings (5-6) at Detroit Lions (0-10-1)

Detroit's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #29 in football with a low 313 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #27 in the league with just 208 yards per game. One consequence of this ineffectiveness has been the ability for opposing defenses to stack the box against them to stop the run, bringing up at least one extra defender 12.4% of the time. Wide receiver has been a particular weakness for the Lions; as a group they've mustered just 113 yards per game (#3-worst in the league).
 
When it comes to their defense, the Lions check in at #26 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 249 yards per game against Detroit this year (#14 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #22 against them with 4.60 yards per ground attempt. This Lions defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, allowing them to complete just 64.8% of their passes (#9-lowest in the league). Detroit's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 9.39 yards per target (#4-worst in the league).

Minnesota's biggest weakness has been their defense, ranking #29 in the league while allowing 395 yards per game. Much of their struggle has come in trying to shut down the run game, as they've allowed opposing ball-carriers to rush for the #6-most yards per carry: 4.77. That's not to give any unnecessary credit to their pass defense, though, which checks in at #6-worst in yards per target (8.32). What makes Minnesota's issues all the more troublesome is that they've struggled in spite of stacking the box with an extra defender 16.7% of the time -- #10-most of any team in football. The Vikings linebackers have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #2-worst in the NFL by this measure.

In terms of their offense, the Vikings have ranked #8 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 268 yards per game (#8 in football). On the ground they've ranked #14 with 4.57 yards per carry. They've been most effective throwing to wide receivers, who have hauled in 73.3% of the balls thrown their way this year (ranking #2).
 
Photo by Chris Schad - The Viking Age
 
 
The Lions have lost 2 consecutive games and remain winless. There may be some desperation for the Lions to record a win. The Lions will have had extra days rest (10 days) between games. The extra time should help the Lions get healthier and prepare for the game. This may enhance their home field advantage this week. These two teams are divisional competitors. This rivalry should add extra significance to the game, and both teams are likely to be ultra motivated. It was a thriller the last time these two teams played each other in Week 5 of the 2021 season. The Vikings pulled off a road win, outscoring the Lions 37-35.
 
The majority of the bets are on the Over with 60% of the bets and 58% of the cash.
 
PROJECTION:
Minnesota Vikings - 28.06
Detroit Lions - 20.75

Win Probability:
MIN 74% / DET 26%
 
 
 
 
 
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