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Los Angeles Chargers (6-4) at Denver Broncos (5-5)
Denver's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 341 yards per game -- #9-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #9-least yards per game: 234. The Denver Broncos pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing running backs, holding them to a 65.1% completion rate (#1-stingiest in football).
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When it comes to their offense, the Broncos check in at #17 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 247 yards per game (#15 in football). Their run game has ranked #10 with 4.67 yards per attempt on the ground. They hit their peak effectiveness when targeting tight ends, who have completed 78.2% of those targets this year (#3-best in the league).
Los Angeles's biggest weakness has been their run defense, ranking #31 in the league while allowing 4.93 yards per game on the ground. The Chargers defensive ends have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #8-worst in the NFL by this measure. This represents a particular disadvantage for Los Angeles given that the Broncos have excelled in the run game this year, accumulating 4.67 yards per carry (#10-best in the league).
In terms of their offense, the Chargers have ranked #7 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 281 yards per game (#7 in football). On the ground they've ranked #5 with 5.12 yards per carry. They've been most effective throwing to wide receivers, who have racked up 190 yards per game (ranking #7).
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The Broncos are coming off a bye and will have had 14 days rest, which is longer then normal. The extra time should help the Broncos get healthier and prepare for the game. This may enhance their home field advantage this week. These two teams are divisional rivals. This rivalry should add extra significance to the game, and both teams are likely to be ultra motivated. It was a thriller the last time these two teams played each other in Week 16 of the 2020 season. The Broncos pulled off a home win, outscoring the Chargers 31-30.
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The majority of the bets are on the Over with 51% of the bets and 52% of the cash.
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PROJECTION:
Los Angeles Chargers - 25.50
Denver Broncos - 23.30
Win Probability:
LAC 55% / DEN 45%
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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