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Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals - Week 13

 
 
 
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LAC CIN
Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)

Cincinnati's primary advantage has been their run defense, which has allowed a scant 4.15 yards per attempt on the ground -- #8-best in the NFL. This Bengals run defense has been anchored by their defensive tackles, who grade out as the #3-best unit in the NFL. This presents a decided advantage for Cincinnati given that the Chargers have had so little success running the ball this year, managing a mere 4.98 yards per carry (#27-worst in the league).
 
When it comes to their offense, the Bengals check in at #20 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 239 yards per game (#17 in football). Their run game has ranked #24 with 4.18 yards per attempt on the ground. They hit their peak effectiveness when targeting tight ends, who have completed 83.7% of those targets this year (#2-best in the league).

Los Angeles's biggest weakness has been their run defense, ranking #31 in the league while allowing 4.94 yards per game on the ground. The Chargers defensive ends have played a big part in their inability to stop the run, ranking #5-worst in the NFL by this measure.

In terms of their offense, the Chargers have ranked #7 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 283 yards per game (#6 in football). On the ground they've ranked #6 with 4.98 yards per carry. They've been most effective throwing to wide receivers, who have racked up 188 yards per game (ranking #8).
 
Photo by Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
 
 
The visiting Chargers will have to travel cross-country for this game. They will travel over ~1900 miles and across 3 time zones to get to Cincinnati. Historically, cross-country road trips have an adverse effect on the visiting team, so it's possible the Chargers and may have to battle jet lag or a disruption to their normal weekly routine. The long travel should help Cincinnati's home field advantage. Their last head-to-head matchup was a slugfest. In Week 1 of 2020 the Chargers won on the road beating the Bengals 16-13. This week will mark back-to-back home games for the Bengals. Not having to travel should bode well for the Bengals, and this could slightly upgrade their home field advantage.
 
This matchup has the #2 highest Game Total this week. Large Totals imply there will be a lot of scoring opportunities and also correlates to a lot of offensive yards. The Game Total has moved a little since it opened. It opened 48.0 before it was bet up to 50.0. About 75% of the bets are on the Over, while about half of the cash 50% is on the Over.
 
PROJECTION:
Cincinnati Bengals - 24.87
Los Angeles Chargers - 23.75

Win Probability:
CIN 52% / LAC 48%
 
 
 
 
 
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