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Las Vegas Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys - Week 12

 
 
 
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LV DAL
Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

Dallas's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #2 in the NFL at 430 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Cowboys 296 yards per game through the air ranks #3-best in football this year. They haven’t made things easy for opposing defense given they they've also positioned themselves in the top 10 on the ground as well, rushing for 4.85 yards per carry. It's easy to see why they've done so well through the air when you notice the quality of their offensive line, which ranks #3 in the league in pass protection. Their running backs have played a big part in their offensive efficiency, completing 87.9% of the passes they've been targeted on (ranking #3).
 
When it comes to their defense, the Cowboys check in at #14 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 265 yards per game against Dallas this year (#20 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #12 against them with 4.38 yards per ground attempt. This Cowboys defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, allowing them to complete just 60.3% of their passes (#4-lowest in the league). Dallas's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 8.42 yards per target (#7-worst in the league).

Las Vegas's biggest strength has been their passing offense, ranking #6 in the league with 281 yards per game through the air. Their wide receivers have been particularly efficient, racking up 10.89 yards per target (ranking #1). It's also worth noting that opposing defenses have stacked the box a whopping 16.5% of the time against the Raiders in an attempt to stop the run game. But because passing is so much more important for an offensive to run effectively, this has opened up opportunities for Las Vegas's offense to succeed through the air.

In terms of their defense, the Raiders have ranked #11 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 225 yards per game through the air against them (#6 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #23 with 4.63 yards per carry. Las Vegas has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 126 yards per game (#1-best). Las Vegas has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up a 77.2% completion rate (#8-highest).
 
Photo by Lachlan Cunningham - Getty Images
 
 
The Raiders have lost 3 consecutive games, while the Cowboys have lost 1 in a row. This is a short week for both teams, and each will have to make due with fewer days to rest and prepare for the game. Coaches and players like routine, so the disruption of a short week may lead to a wider range of outcomes and less efficiency on both sides of the ball. This week will mark back-to-back home games for the Cowboys. Not having to travel should bode well for the Cowboys, and this could slightly upgrade their home field advantage.
 
This matchup has the #2 highest Game Total this week. Large Totals imply there will be a lot of scoring opportunities and also correlates to a lot of offensive yards. Sizable line movement toward the Under has shifted the Game Total. It opened 54.5 before it was bet down to 51.0. The Over has approximately 51% of the bets, but only 39% of the cash.
 
PROJECTION:
Dallas Cowboys - 29.99
Las Vegas Raiders - 23.63

Win Probability:
DAL 71% / LV 29%
 
 
 
 
 
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