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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) at Los Angeles Rams (7-4)
Jacksonville's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #7 in the league with 4.79 yards per carry. Many of the best running clubs get their quarterbacks involved (after all, quarterbacks get an extra 2 or so yards per carry more than running backs), and Jacksonville has done this more than most teams, calling 15.1% of their carries for their QB. Wide receiver rushing plays can create confusion for the defense and generally average an extra couple yards per carry, and Jacksonville has called more of these plays than most of the teams in the NFL this year.
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In terms of their defense, the Jaguars have ranked #22 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 254 yards per game through the air against them (#15 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #15 with 4.42 yards per carry. Jacksonville has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to a 72.3% completion rate (#2-lowest). Jacksonville has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up a 76.3% completion rate (#1-highest).
Los Angeles's primary advantage has been their run defense, which has allowed a scant 4.00 yards per attempt on the ground -- #4-best in the NFL. Los Angeles gets full marks because they haven't even sold out to stop the run the way many teams do. They've played with the standard seven men in the box 4.9% of the time this year. While many teams bring an extra defender up near the line of scrimmage to stop the run, the Rams have employed this tactic the #1-least in football. This Rams run defense has been anchored by their defensive tackles, who grade out as the #1-best unit in the NFL.
When it comes to their offense, the Rams check in at #9 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 280 yards per game (#7 in football). Their run game has ranked #19 with 4.38 yards per attempt on the ground. They hit their peak effectiveness when targeting wide receivers, who have accrued 249 yards per game (#1-best in the league).
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The Jaguars are winless on the road after losing 4 straight road games, while the Rams are 3-2 at home. The visiting Jaguars will have to travel cross-country for this game. They will travel over ~2150 miles and across 3 time zones to get to Los Angeles. Historically, cross-country road trips have an adverse effect on the visiting team, so it's possible the Jaguars and may have to battle jet lag or a disruption to their normal weekly routine. The long travel should help Los Angeles's home field advantage.
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This matchup has the #3 highest Game Total this week. Large Totals imply there will be a lot of scoring opportunities and also correlates to a lot of offensive yards. The majority of the bets are on the Over with 58% of the bets and 55% of the cash.
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PROJECTION:
Los Angeles Rams - 30.61
Jacksonville Jaguars - 17.37
Win Probability:
LA 86% / JAX 14%
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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