Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs - Week 13

Denver Broncos (6-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)

Kansas City's primary advantage has been their offense, which ranks #3 in the NFL at 421 yards per game. The quality of their passing attack has led to much of their success. The Chiefs 312 yards per game through the air ranks #2-best in football this year. It's easy to see why they've done so well through the air when you notice the quality of their offensive line, which ranks #1 in the league in pass protection. Their tight ends have played a big part in their offensive effectiveness, averaging 84 yards per game (ranking #1). This presents a decided advantage for Kansas City given that the Broncos haven't had much success in stopping the pass this year, giving up 7.51 yards per target (#23-worst in the NFL).

When it comes to their defense, the Chiefs check in at #24 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 268 yards per game against Kansas City this year (#24 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #24 against them with 4.71 yards per ground attempt. This Chiefs defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, allowing them to complete just 64.4% of their passes (#8-lowest in the league). Kansas City's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 9.21 yards per target (#1-worst in the league).

Denver's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #10 in the league with 4.69 yards per carry. This represents a particular advantage for Denver given that the Chiefs have struggled so much to stop the run this year, allowing 4.71 yards per carry (#9-worst in the league).

In terms of their defense, the Broncos have ranked #9 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 241 yards per game through the air against them (#11 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #13 with 4.35 yards per carry. Denver has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to a 66.2% completion rate (#1-lowest). Positionally, perhaps their worst defensive asset has been their cornerbacks, which rank just #27 in the league in locking down route-runners.

The Chiefs have won 4 straight games, while the Broncos have won 1 in a row. The Chiefs are coming off a bye and will have had 14 days rest, which is longer then normal. The extra time should help the Chiefs get healthier and prepare for the game. This may enhance their home field advantage this week. These two teams are divisional challengers. This rivalry should add extra significance to the game, and both teams are likely to be ultra motivated. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 13 in 2020. That game resulted in a home win for the Chiefs with a final score of 22-16. This will be a back-to-back road game for the Broncos. The extra travel won't help the Broncos, and this could slightly upgrade the Chiefs home field advantage.

There has been some line movement on the Game Total toward the Under. It opened 49.5 before it was bet down to 46.5. The betting handle for this Game Total is notable, because there is reverse line movement. The Over is receiving the majority of the betting handle, however the Game Total has shifted down 3.0 points. Approximately 60% of the bets and 62% of the Cash has been wagered on the Over. This may indicate some smart money was wagered on the Under as Sportsbooks often move lines based on sharp action and not raw betting handles. Compared to all the other game action this week, the Over has the highest percentage of cash this week.

PROJECTION:
Kansas City Chiefs - 26.02
Denver Broncos - 20.84

Win Probability:
KC 68% / DEN 32%

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